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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Minnesota has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 29–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 29–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025352941
2026352941
2027352941
2028352941
2029352941

American Robin Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American Robin in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 27720242013
Money Creek7320241967
Huntley7220241967
Osseo6920241967
Chandler6820231969
Maynard6720151967
Whitewater6720001994
Ash Creek6620241975
Fairmont6520231993
Courtland6020241978
Worthington5720242004
Oklee5520211969
Tracy5520242004
Le Roy5320241993
Arlington5220241967
New London5220241994
Hartland5120171967
Franklin4920241993
Chokio North4820241993
Frontenac4620241993
Warroad4620241993
Knapp4520241967
Crane Lake4420241969
St Stephen4320161967
Chatfield4219991967

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.