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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Minnesota has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 36 (95% range 30–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 36 (95% range 30–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026352941
2027352942
2028362942
2029362942
2030363042

American Robin Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American Robin in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millville11720251967
Fairmont9220251993
Worthington8120252004
Tracy8120252004
Chandler7420251969
Ash Creek6820251975
Lakeville6820251968
Le Roy6820251993
Maynard6720151967
Whitewater6720001994
Hart Lake6620251967
Chokio North6620251993
Minnetonka6020251969
Chokio5720251969
Courtland5520251978
Oklee5520211969
New London5220241994
Hartland5120171967
Appleton5120251978
Huntley5020251967
Knapp4820251967
Lude4720251978
Franklin4720251993
Chatfield 24720252003
Frontenac4620241993

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.