BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Nebraska has surged: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+112%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Nebraska: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Nebraska is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 48 (95% range 39–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
39–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Nebraska is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 48 (95% range 39–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026463755
2027473756
2028473856
2029473857
2030483957

American Robin Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording American Robin in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Surprise18520251967
Kenesaw18420251967
Murdock13420252018
Irvington11920251967
Gretna11520181967
Winside11220031967
Gretna 211020252019
Belvidere10620251967
Sparta9420251967
Hampton8820252018
Ponca8520252018
Winside 28220222005
Madison8020252018
Tilden7220252019
Kearney6920251968
Thurston6920251967
Richland6620251968
Petersburg6620251969
Sumner6520251967
Julian6320251969
Seward6120251967
Lyons5720252018
Boelus5620222018
Sargent4420252021
Table4320251973

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.