BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 185% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+185%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±245.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 185% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.30.008.2
20273.30.008.2
20283.20.008.1
20293.10.008.0
20303.10.008.0

American Robin Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording American Robin in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colony2119951995
Wainwright1920131992
Pocola1820161992
Mcalester1619911967
Blanco1520161967
Peoria1420231967
Beggs820231967
Canadian720171967
Sandbluff719951992
Indianola620251967
Welch620251967
Barnsdall519771967
Wichita Mtns519941994
Skiatook520191982
Baron420211967
Collinsville420211967
Clear Lake420251992
Noble320251967
Rosston320171968
Elgin319941994
Heyburn320241992
Sickles320211992
Arapaho320141992
Colcord320221992
Keetonville320221992

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.