BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Maine has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has fallen sharply in Maine: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Maine is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 16–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Maine is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 16–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251832
2026251832
2027241732
2028241731
2029231631

American Robin Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording American Robin in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washburn10520051979
St David7820051982
Kittery Pt6920241966
Ft Fairfield5720051993
Manchester5519951971
Clayton Lake5420081977
Benton5119801971
Baker Lake 25120132010
Cornville5020242012
Wytopitlock4819981976
Ludlow4719981968
Priestly Br.4720131994
Telos4420061995
Northfield4219811976
Clayton Lake 24220132010
Warren4119901973
Ashland4120081980
Baker Lake3820091994
Jefferson3820101991
Forest Sta3720001966
Turner3520101972
Reeds3420241983
Rome3420241996
Cape Neddick3320241972
Brooks3320191977

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.