BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Kansas has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has risen sharply in Kansas: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171123
2026171123
2027171123
2028171123
2029171123

American Robin Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording American Robin in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jamestown7520242000
Bucyrus6320242022
Hollenberg5520231969
Hanover4520231969
Beloit 24420182005
Wellington4120241968
Seneca3720221967
Jewell 23320242006
Berwet3120242000
Logan3020221967
Albert2920241967
Covert2720241967
Phillipsburg2520221967
Beloit2320032000
Jewell2220051967
Severance2120242000
St John2020191967
Olathe2020211967
Rexford2020242000
Ash Valley1920192000
Gray1820191967
Susank1720222000
Grantville1620221967
Olsburg1520242000
Wreford1420241967

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.