BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Kansas has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Kansas: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Kansas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Kansas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171123
2027171123
2028171123
2029171123
2030171123

American Robin Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording American Robin in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hollenberg8120251969
Hanover4720251969
Beloit 24420182005
Jamestown4420252000
Albert4020251967
Seneca3720221967
Phillipsburg3620251967
Covert3520251967
Logan3520251967
Bucyrus3520252022
Jewell 23120252006
Wellington3020251968
Berwet2520252000
Beloit2320032000
Jewell2220051967
St John2020191967
Olathe2020211967
Ash Valley1920192000
Gray1820191967
Susank1720222000
Severance1720252000
Grantville1620221967
Wreford1420241967
Ellinor1420251967
Chapman1419811967

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.