BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Mississippi has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has fallen sharply in Mississippi: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.004.7
20260.240.004.6
20270.090.004.4
20280.000.004.3
20290.000.004.3

American Robin Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording American Robin in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tupelo2920221966
Commerce2619931966
Fayette1720131972
Olive Branch1620011966
Moon1620211996
Walthall1019871970
Corinth1020241972
Tchula819751970
Cockrum520241966
Macon520241967
Scooba519821969
Monticello520072007
Trace Lee520182013
Aberdeen420241970
Panther Swamp Nwr420162016
Tchula 2419941976
Isola320221969
Duck Hill320241968
Winterville320112009
Weir320232016
Lake Como319841983
Olive Branch 2320222016
Scooba 2319871983
Beverly219771977
Benton220241972

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.