BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

American Robin in North Dakota has surged: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+257%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in North Dakota: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 18–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 18–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251732
2026251733
2027251833
2028261833
2029261834

American Robin Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Robin in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dickinson6320241968
Edgeley5320241980
Walcott5220231967
Loraine4820191982
Abercrombie4720121967
Turtle Mtns4320241980
Zap4020241967
Douglas Crk3920241982
Emerado3820241973
Bowman3820241967
Dunn Center3720241968
Gorham3720181968
Denbigh3620241968
Lakota 23020242010
Kempton2720171967
Montpelier2720241990
Sheyenne Lk2620241980
Tobacco2520191968
Forman2320241968
Bentley2320241988
Nash2220171980
Rolla2220241969
Stanley2220241968
Powers Lake2220241980
Cooperstown2120241969

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.