BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

American Robin in North Dakota has surged: up 288% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+288%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in North Dakota: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 19–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 19–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251733
2027251833
2028261833
2029261834
2030261934

American Robin Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Robin in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dickinson6020251968
Regan5520251969
Walcott5220231967
Loraine4820191982
Abercrombie4720121967
Bowman4220251967
Forman4020251968
Zap4020241967
Douglas Crk4020251982
Cooperstown3920251969
Gorham3820251968
Edgeley3720251980
Denbigh3520251968
Stanley3120251968
Powers Lake3020251980
Kempton2720171967
Turtle Mtns2720251980
Tobacco2520191968
Golva2520251979
Buchanan2420251969
Bentley2320241988
Carson2320251988
Nash2220171980
Rolla2220241969
Wimbledon2120251981

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.