BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

American Robin in South Dakota has surged: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+196%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in South Dakota: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 19–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 19–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271836
2027271836
2028281937
2029281937
2030281937

American Robin Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording American Robin in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Fox12420171992
Elk Mountain11620041992
Norbeck10620021992
Roubaix Lk7819911967
Custer7820251967
Howard7320251970
Long Draw6120251992
Volga6020251967
Englewood5920211992
Pleasant Val5520241992
Silver City5520121992
Wilmot5420251967
Lightning Cr5320251992
Geddes5120251967
Lennox4820251967
Lane 24320142000
Tripp4220251967
Broadland4220171967
Hazelrodt4220251992
Hill City4020131992
Isabel3920151990
Wind Cave Np3920251999
Britton3220231967
Eagle Butte3120151990
Turton2920251985

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.