BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Texas has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Texas. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.45 (95% range 0.05–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.45 (95% range 0.05–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.050.86
20260.450.050.86
20270.450.050.86
20280.450.050.86
20290.450.050.86

American Robin Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording American Robin in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diboll920241971
Oakwood819861971
Rhome820001969
Gambill Ref.720241995
Lydia520221967
Pantex520072000
Friona520222015
Easton 2520242014
Katy420242007
Gause419971969
Wolfe City419871971
Circle420241998
Chandler 2420242005
Weches420241998
Peach Creek319861975
Miller Grove320241971
Henrietta320221979
Raymondville319761976
Thornton 2320101986
Canutillo320241995
Charlie320231994
Twichell320231998
Gruver320232010
Smyrna 2320232012
Lone Oak220192019

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.