BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Texas has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+38%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Texas. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.05–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.05–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.460.050.86
20270.460.050.86
20280.460.050.86
20290.460.050.86
20300.460.050.86

American Robin Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording American Robin in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diboll1120251971
Oakwood819861971
Adamsville820252009
Rhome820001969
Athens520251968
Lydia520221967
Pantex520072000
Weches520251998
Gambill Ref.520251995
Gause419971969
Winchell420252025
Crossroads420251967
Weatherford420251968
Wolfe City419871971
Circle420241998
Texline420251977
Chandler 2420242005
Silver420252024
Katy320252007
Peach Creek319861975
Henrietta320221979
Raymondville319761976
Thornton 2320101986
Charlie320231994
Twichell320231998

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.