BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Arkansas has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Arkansas is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.09–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Arkansas is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.09–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.50.3913
20266.40.3213
20276.40.2412
20286.30.1712
20296.20.0912

American Robin Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording American Robin in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Avoca6420241967
Wilson4020241993
Whitton3519911967
Farwell3220182010
Harrisburg2720191968
Dell2720242010
Massard2520221967
Coal Hill2220231967
Centerton1620242010
Hughes1320231967
Maynard1220241967
England1120242010
Crows819911967
Blakely819991968
Kelso820162010
Augusta 2820162002
Saffell720191967
Russell720212010
Old Milo620141967
Stark620241967
Springhill520132010
Locust Bayou420231967
Augusta420011967
Compton420221967
Stephens420242010

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.