BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Arkansas has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Arkansas is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Arkansas is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.20.1212
20276.10.0412
20286.10.0012
20296.00.0012
20305.90.0012

American Robin Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording American Robin in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Avoca6420241967
Whitton3519911967
Farwell3220182010
Harrisburg2720191968
Massard2520221967
Coal Hill2220231967
Wilson2220251993
Maynard2120251967
Centerton1720252010
Crows819911967
Blakely819991968
Kelso820162010
Augusta 2820162002
Saffell720191967
Russell720212010
Hughes620251967
Poyen 2620252008
Springhill520132010
Crowley'S Ridge520252011
Locust Bayou420231967
Augusta420011967
Compton420221967
Dell420252010
England420252010
Stephens420252010

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.