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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Alaska has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+35%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Alaska. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Alaska is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 13–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Alaska is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 13–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241236
2027241336
2028241336
2029241336
2030241336

American Robin Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording American Robin in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
King Salmon6220251993
Tonsina6120212014
Wasilla5919831983
Haines5720251972
Ketchikan5620221971
Willow5520251993
Kachemak5420251986
Sheep Mtn5120251983
Nabesna Road5120251989
Ft. Richrdsn5120231994
Zimovia Strt4920251988
Goose Bay4819821975
Delta4720241995
Alpenglow (Short)4620121994
Dietrich Cmp4420251993
Northway4320251989
Sourdough4120251983
Chistochina3920251990
Kenny Lake3820251983
Hyder3820091994
Hatcher Pass3720251982
Seven Lakes3720251986
Cottonwood3719901987
Copper River3620111993
Lake Louise3520251993

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.