BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Washington has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-30%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Washington. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 42 (95% range 31–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 42 (95% range 31–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025423253
2026423253
2027423252
2028423152
2029423152

American Robin Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Robin in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mendota 215920001989
Port Angeles12820241970
Mesa11120081994
Newhalem10920241968
Warm Beach10820171968
Scootney Reservoir10320242009
Mukilteo10020241993
Vashon Is.9920241995
Kendall8720241981
Everett8620241975
Raymond 28620242022
Othello8319911981
Cascade Riv8320061988
South Elma8220241975
Deer Park7720151994
Ilwaco7520241975
Ozette7320241971
Rainier7320191993
Montesand7220241986
Camas7120181971
Carnation7120241988
Deception7120181992
Keller7020071968
Laurier6920221995
Twisp6520241969

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.