BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Washington has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Washington. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 31–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 31–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026423253
2027423252
2028423252
2029423152
2030423152

American Robin Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording American Robin in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mendota 215920001989
Port Angeles12720251970
Scootney Reservoir12420252009
Everett11620251975
Mesa11120081994
Warm Beach10820171968
Newhalem10120251968
Mukilteo9720251993
Carnation9620251988
Kendall8920251981
Raymond 28620242022
Othello8319911981
Cascade Riv8320061988
South Elma8220241975
Vashon Is.7920251995
Mendota 37820252005
Deer Park7720151994
Montesand7220241986
Camas7120181971
Deception7120181992
Keller7020071968
Twisp6520241969
Pe Ell6520251993
Ilwaco6420251975
Rainier6420251993

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.