BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Ohio has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has risen sharply in Ohio: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Ohio is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 86 (95% range 67–104). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
67–10495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Ohio is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 86 (95% range 67–104). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268466102
20278466103
20288566103
20298567104
20308667104

American Robin Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording American Robin in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harveysburg24219961966
Wilmington17419961966
Dunlap17319881966
Napoleon14720251966
Lockport13720251966
Vickery13420251996
Bismark12719951967
Omega12620241966
N Baltimore11620191966
Newport11619941966
Xenia11020181966
Garrettsvile10119911966
Troy10119961966
Stonecreek10120251996
Marion9920231966
West Elkton9920121992
Birmingham9920241988
Herner Crns9420251966
Tecumseh9419821966
London9320121997
Dresden9120251966
Pittsfield9020241992
Kenton9020251966
Ashley9020181988
Darrtown8820211966

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.