BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Ohio has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+72%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has risen sharply in Ohio: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Ohio is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 87 (95% range 69–105). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
69–10595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Ohio is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 87 (95% range 69–105). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258567103
20268567103
20278668104
20288668104
20298769105

American Robin Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording American Robin in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harveysburg24219961966
Wilmington17419961966
Dunlap17319881966
Vickery12820241996
Bismark12719951967
Omega12620241966
Lockport12520241966
Napoleon12320241966
N Baltimore11620191966
Newport11619941966
Kalida11420191966
Xenia11020181966
Hiram10820211992
Bloomville10520241992
Stonecreek10420241996
Garrettsvile10119911966
Troy10119961966
Marion9920231966
West Elkton9920121992
Birmingham9920241988
Marion 29820242024
Smithfield9420241966
Tecumseh9419821966
London9320121997
Pittsfield9020241992

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.