BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

American Robin in North Carolina has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in North Carolina is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in North Carolina is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161220
2027161220
2028161220
2029161220
2030161220

American Robin Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording American Robin in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mooresville6920011966
Sturgills5420252001
Sawmill4920251990
Todd4620251995
Madison3819851966
Cullowhee3720251974
Jarvisburg3619991992
Jamesville3220251983
Hulls Xroads3120231997
Call2820251968
Sheffield2620251991
Jarvisburg 22620252000
Linville2520251976
Mooresville 22520252006
Dortches2520251990
Wilgrove2420251995
Cherryville2319681966
Beargrass2219811969
Craven Gap2219751969
Fairview2120251991
Ostwalt2120252012
Copeland1920251968
California 21920252014
Bullock1820251997
Eden1720251987

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.