BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

American Robin in North Carolina has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in North Carolina is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in North Carolina is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 12–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161220
2026161220
2027161221
2028161221
2029161221

American Robin Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording American Robin in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mooresville6920011966
Todd5820231995
Sawmill5720241990
Sturgills5020242001
Cullowhee4820241974
Hendersonvil4420241996
Madison3819851966
Jarvisburg3619991992
Sheffield3320241991
Hulls Xroads3120231997
Fairview2920241991
Mooresville 22420242006
Ostwalt2420242012
Cherryville2319681966
Beargrass2219811969
Craven Gap2219751969
Brevard2120241968
Jarvisburg 22120222000
Call2020241968
Dortches2020241990
Linville1920241976
Jamesville1920241983
Eden1720241987
Hamlet1720241995
Cherokee1720242011

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.