BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

American Robin in New York has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in New York. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New York is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 56 (95% range 47–64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
47–6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New York is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 56 (95% range 47–64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025564865
2026564865
2027564864
2028564864
2029564764

American Robin Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Robin in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cayuga24220241969
Cicero Ctr18120241966
Manorville16720241966
Churchville16320241968
Naples14320241966
West Seneca13720041966
Macdougall12720241969
St Johnsburg12720241967
Orleans10720241967
N Victory10419721967
Romulus10220001968
Hauppauge9820181966
Canadice L9720241968
Warwick9519741968
Branchport8820241967
Dryden8720241966
Hamburg8720241967
Penfield8520241968
Corbettsvile8420241966
Nashville8320181967
E Youngstown8320231966
Jones Beach8120131966
North Easton8020241967
Huntington7720231966
Alder Creek7620041968

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.