BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

American Robin in New York has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in New York. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New York is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 56 (95% range 48–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
48–6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New York is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 56 (95% range 48–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026574866
2027574866
2028574865
2029574865
2030564865

American Robin Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Robin in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cayuga20920251969
Macdougall18720251969
Cicero Ctr17120251966
Manorville16720241966
Naples15120251966
Churchville14720251968
E Youngstown14120251966
West Seneca13720041966
Orleans11420251967
Penfield11220251968
St Johnsburg10620251967
N Victory10419721967
Romulus10220001968
Corbettsvile10120251966
Hauppauge9820181966
Dryden9820251966
Warwick9519741968
Branchport8820241967
Nashville8320181967
Jones Beach8120131966
Harris Hill7920252005
Huntington7720231966
Alder Creek7620041968
North Easton7620251967
Durham7419761966

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.