BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Kentucky has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Kentucky is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 35–70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
35–7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Kentucky is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 35–70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025523470
2026523470
2027523470
2028523470
2029523570

American Robin Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording American Robin in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plum14420241966
Sewell Shop13420231966
Goshen13319991966
Buena Vista12020171966
Pleasurevill10620241979
Mcbrayer9720241966
Johnsonville9520211966
Staffordsvil9319971996
Paintsville8819951979
Glencoe8220221966
Hodgenville7720031967
Levee 27520192007
Shelbyville6919781966
Kings Mtn6620241966
Boxville6319831966
Million6219861966
Million 26220242006
Levee6119821966
Hustonville6120241966
Dixie6020191967
Drakesboro5420031966
Hodgenville 25220232008
Kehoe4819921966
Keysburg4720241968
Shiloh4620231967

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.