BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 68 (95% range 59–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
59–7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 68 (95% range 59–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026685978
2027685978
2028685978
2029685978
2030685978

American Robin Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording American Robin in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brunnerville18820091969
West Grove17419961966
Collegeville17120241971
Portersville15419881973
Akron15419971989
Aspers15319891968
Sardis14419741967
Pottstown13719871966
Middletown13520251973
Beaver13320251969
Ryde13020051968
Duvall12720211974
Doylesburg12720232009
Leola12420251998
Geeseytown11820251987
Millville11720251969
Ralston11619781966
Normalville11019741966
Waller10620251971
Schaefferstown 210620252002
Schwenksvill10620241988
Harmonsburg10420251966
Roulette10420211970
Wild Creek10320251988
Martinsburg9920251970

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.