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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 69 (95% range 60–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
60–7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 69 (95% range 60–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025696078
2026696078
2027696078
2028696078
2029696078

American Robin Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording American Robin in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leola19720241998
Brunnerville18820091969
West Grove17419961966
Collegeville17120241971
Portersville15419881973
Akron15419971989
Aspers15319891968
Sardis14419741967
Pottstown13719871966
Ryde13020051968
Middletown13020241973
Duvall12720211974
Doylesburg12720232009
Pine Gr Mill12520241967
Martinsburg12420241970
Mount Joy12220241978
Millville12020241969
Ralston11619781966
Normalville11019741966
Schaefferstown 210720242002
Schwenksvill10620241988
Beaver10520241969
Roulette10420211970
Bald Eagle10120241969
Sugar Grove9820241980

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.