BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Vermont has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Vermont. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 33 (95% range 22–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 33 (95% range 22–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025342445
2026342444
2027342344
2028332344
2029332243

American Robin Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording American Robin in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg8719941966
East Haven6320241966
Hardwick6020241966
Shaftsbury5720241966
Landgrove5120241966
Waterville4619801967
Newbury4220041986
Marlboro4120241966
Middlesex4020241968
Newbury 23820232005
Stratton3520241966
S Wallingfrd3420221966
Greensboro3420241967
St Johnsbury3120241970
Stowe3120241988
Gaysville3020211966
East Calais2920241966
North Pownal2720241966
Fletcher2720241968
W Rutland2520241966
Colchester2520241986
Northfld Fls2420211980
S Reading2320241966
Grand Isle2320241967
Bristol2120181995

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.