BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Vermont has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Vermont. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Vermont is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 22–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Vermont is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 22–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026352445
2027342445
2028342344
2029332344
2030332243

American Robin Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording American Robin in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Pownal14320251966
Hinesburg8719941966
Gaysville6020251966
Hardwick6020241966
East Haven5420251966
Shaftsbury4820251966
Waterville4619801967
Northfld Fls4520251980
Landgrove4320251966
Newbury4220041986
Colchester4020251986
East Calais3920251966
Newbury 23820232005
Fletcher3720251968
Bristol3720251995
Greensboro3620251967
S Wallingfrd3420221966
Stratton3320251966
Stowe3120241988
Post Mills3020251966
Middlesex2920251968
Marlboro2820251966
St Johnsbury2820251970
W Rutland2720251966
S Reading2320241966

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.