BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Maryland has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Maryland. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Maryland is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 56 (95% range 41–71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
41–7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Maryland is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 56 (95% range 41–71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026564071
2027564171
2028564171
2029564171
2030564171

American Robin Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording American Robin in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emmitsburg16320251966
Williamsport15120251966
Wheaton13420251990
Earlton13320242014
Jennings12720251995
Madonna10120222009
Finzel9820251995
Ijamsville9020251986
Golden Hill8720251966
Fair Hill7819961992
Severna Park7820111982
Forest Grove7620232011
Bachman Mill7320251966
Upper Xrds7320081966
Beltsville7120121966
Largo7119811966
Melitota6620251966
Harmony6320171966
Matthews6320251966
Eklo6220181966
Bald Friar6219961992
Silver Spg6119891966
Pleasant Val6020251966
La Plata6020091966
Smithsburg5720141966

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.