BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

American Robin in New Jersey has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New Jersey is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 62 (95% range 47–77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
47–7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New Jersey is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 62 (95% range 47–77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025624777
2026624777
2027624777
2028624777
2029624777

American Robin Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording American Robin in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown32520121991
Pedricktown 214920242013
Clarksville13019911969
Holmansville11420091969
Croton 210820242008
Keyport10320221986
Hope9419941970
Robbinsville7719791966
Croton7420071970
Deepwater7319771969
Cape May Ch7220131992
Kemah Lake6720241966
Cranbury6620241987
Passaic6319691969
Gillette6220241988
Winslow6120241989
Midvale6020221967
Bennett Mill 26020242016
New Bedford5720241969
Roosevelt5420221986
Ramseysburg5320241995
Woodbury Hgt5120241967
Masonville5019701966
Sandbrook4920241969
Dover4920231977

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.