BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

American Robin in New Jersey has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New Jersey is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 61 (95% range 45–76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
45–7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New Jersey is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 61 (95% range 45–76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026614577
2027614577
2028614577
2029614576
2030614576

American Robin Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording American Robin in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown32520121991
Pedricktown 218920252013
Clarksville13019911969
Holmansville11420091969
Keyport10320221986
Hope9419941970
Robbinsville7719791966
Croton7420071970
Deepwater7319771969
Cape May Ch7220131992
Croton 27220252008
Cranbury6820251987
Kemah Lake6720241966
Passaic6319691969
Midvale6020221967
Winslow5820251989
Bennett Mill 25820252016
New Bedford5720241969
Roosevelt5420221986
Bloomsbury5320251969
Gillette5220251988
Masonville5019701966
Dover4920231977
Pottersville4920241977
Sandbrook4820251969

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.