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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Virginia has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Virginia. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Virginia is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Virginia is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171122
2026171122
2027161122
2028161122
2029161122

American Robin Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording American Robin in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stanley9420241966
Saltville7220241969
Newbern6919821968
Cornland6720141975
Churchville6420241966
Great Falls5319781966
Hebron 25220242023
Edinburg5120241968
Fincastle5120241966
Rural Retrt4820241982
Jerome4320231971
Taylorstown4120101967
Marion3919821976
Hebron3720221981
Brandy Station3420242017
Ivanhoe3319681966
Colonial Pky3019981992
Isom2920241969
Putnam2920211969
Clinchport2519781967
Iron Mountain 22520132012
Stickleyvill2419901975
Nat Tunnel2420241981
Star Tannery2320241977
Mountain Lk.2320181992

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.