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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Virginia has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Virginia. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171122
2027171122
2028161122
2029161122
2030161122

American Robin Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording American Robin in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stanley7520251966
Newbern6919821968
Cornland6720141975
Churchville5320251966
Great Falls5319781966
Rural Retrt5320251982
Putnam4620251969
Edinburg4420251968
Hebron 24420252023
Blacksburg4220251988
Taylorstown4120101967
Marion3919821976
Star Tannery3820251977
Hebron3720221981
Jerome3620251971
Saltville3620251969
Nat Tunnel3520251981
Ivanhoe3319681966
Quinby3020251966
Colonial Pky3019981992
Isom2920241969
Fincastle2720251966
Clinchport2519781967
Iron Mountain 22520132012
Stickleyvill2419901975

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.