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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Tennessee has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has risen sharply in Tennessee: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Robin Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Tennessee is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 12–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Tennessee is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 12–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221233
2027221233
2028221233
2029231233
2030231233

American Robin Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording American Robin in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Climer10920041967
Corryton Rd6920191966
Indian Mound6519981966
Lovell6420191966
Peytonsville6220251966
Walland5019891966
Allens Brdge4820231966
Jefferson Cty4620111966
Humboldt3920251966
White House3720191966
Petersburg3720191969
Pawpaw 23120252013
Tibbs2920251966
Belotes Bend2920181966
Pawpaw2820121968
Oliver Spgs2820221966
Tullahoma2720151967
Collinwood2620251966
Mt Olive2620241966
Glen2320251966
Tiptonville2220251966
Campbellsville2220171966
Fish Springs2020231966
Bradyville1920211966
Jasper1720251967

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.