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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Missouri has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+170%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Missouri: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.3–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.3–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.25.2
20263.72.35.2
20273.82.35.2
20283.82.35.3
20293.82.35.3

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frazier1620241967
Moselle1620242000
New Point1420241994
Emden1420242017
Kearney1220241994
Norborne1120232006
Syracuse1020241969
Sticklervill1020241970
Osage Beach1020241997
Auburn1020242014
Mincy1020242013
Cp Girardeau920241968
House Springs920242017
Doe Run920242015
Peace Valley820241975
Ohio820241972
Gildehouse819891978
Kahoka2820242002
Milford820242015
Rueter 2820242023
Cascade720241968
Huntsville720241968
Clementine 2720072007
Lincoln720242013
West Plains720242014

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.