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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Missouri has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+178%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Missouri: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.8 (95% range 2.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.8 (95% range 2.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.35.2
20273.82.35.2
20283.82.35.2
20293.82.45.3
20303.82.45.3

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frazier1620241967
Emden1420242017
New Point1320251994
Sweden1120251968
Centertown1120251974
Norborne1120232006
House Springs1120252017
Moselle1120252000
Syracuse1020241969
Peace Valley920251975
Rockingham920251971
Frankford920251985
Eugene920252013
Gildehouse819891978
Kahoka2820242002
Cascade720251968
Sticklervill720251970
Kearney720251994
Clementine 2720072007
Harrisonville720252017
Filley620251975
Osage Beach620251997
Lincoln620252013
Diamond620252017
Cp Girardeau520251968

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.