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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Michigan has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Michigan: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.83.5
20262.61.83.5
20272.71.83.5
20282.71.83.5
20292.71.83.5

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Galesburg1820241966
No Bradley1320241987
Belding 21220242004
Cohoctah1120242021
Hartland1120091992
Prattville820211969
Lapeer820242000
Cunard720211973
Nashville720241968
Howardsville720241969
Almena720151993
Belding620031983
Frederic 2620172007
Barry S.G.A.620121995
Chippewa Lk.520241995
Herman420151983
Lawrence420241969
Bravo420231974
Remus420241974
Mottville420241967
Maple Rapids420131988
Pleasant Valley 2420242005
Gibbs City320241979
Bear Lake320241970
Big Blue Lk320241979

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.