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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Michigan has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+72%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Michigan: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.73.5
20272.61.73.5
20282.61.83.5
20292.61.83.5
20302.71.83.5

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hartland1120091992
Galesburg920251966
Prattville820211969
Cunard720211973
Nashville720251968
Almena720151993
Belding620031983
Howardsville620251969
Cohoctah620252021
Frederic 2620172007
Lapeer620252000
Barry S.G.A.620121995
Scottville520251968
No Bradley520251987
Chippewa Lk.520251995
Herman420151983
Bear Lake420251970
Bravo420231974
Maple Rapids420131988
Belding 2420252004
Big Blue Lk320251979
Pleasant Val319971967
Coopersville320241984
Remus320251974
Mottville320251967

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.