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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Minnesota has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+119%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Minnesota: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.50–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.50–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.481.5
20271.00.491.5
20281.00.491.5
20291.00.491.5
20301.00.501.5

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Minnetonka820251970
Osseo720241970
Bagley620061997
Chatfield 2520242005
Chandler420181970
Cromwell420251967
Austin420231996
Brook Park420251998
Cass Lake420061981
Caledonia 2420242014
Huntley320191969
Knapp320251974
St Stephen320251973
Mille Lacs320241968
Hovland320251973
Sherry Lake320221969
Bemidji319801968
Brainerd320141993
Sawbill Camp320221993
Babbitt320251998
Big Stone320121996
Ash Creek220251977
Lakeville220251976
Arlington220251968
Courtland220251979

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.