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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Montana has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-57%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Montana: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.26
20270.090.000.26
20280.090.000.26
20290.090.000.26
20300.090.000.26

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elliston319941971
St Xavier320101980
Powderville319861985
Glen220082008
Brusett220232018
Forsyth220162016
Chestnut220251969
Whitefish Lake220212016
Ninemile220221993
Skalkaho219921992
Painted Rock220191995
Libby Dam120011982
Kalispell120251976
St Mary120062006
Victor119981996
Threemile Wa120232009
Cleveland120071989
Cramer Creek120182018
Glasgow120142014
Willow Creek 2120101992
Greenough119991996
St Regis120081978
Polson119991993
Arlee120241970
Augusta120112008

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.