BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Utah has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-39%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Utah. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Utah is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Utah is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.23
20260.060.000.23
20270.060.000.22
20280.060.000.22
20290.060.000.22

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La Sal520001993
Beck319861972
Fish Lake Nf320231993
Woodruff220242007
Navajo Lake220241989
Skyline Driv220061992
Richfield220072000
Beck 2220091996
Newcastle220192003
Heber Mtn.220142004
Hyrum119781977
Altonah120042004
Grizzly Rdge120241998
Lost Cr. Res120111996
Oak City120232014
Saleratus Cr120042004
La Sal 2120062006
Willow Creek119981998
Logan Canyon120142011
Beaver120211984
Red Spur Mtn.120222008
Boulder120192000
Lynn120112011
Soapstone120242003
Moon Lake120031997

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.