BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Maryland has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Maryland: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Maryland is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.5–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Maryland is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.5–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.03.36.6
20265.03.46.6
20275.03.46.7
20285.13.46.7
20295.13.56.7

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olney2320241966
Earlton1620242014
Wheaton1520241990
Ijamsville1420241986
Island Creek1420241991
Honga1320241966
Davidsnville1320241982
Smithsburg1220141967
Madison1220241966
Forest Grove1220232011
Williamsport1120241966
Emmitsburg1120241966
Madonna1120222009
Silver Spg1019891966
Beltsville1020121966
Cokesbury1020241966
Norwood920121966
Eklo920181966
Warfieldsbrg820241967
Pt Republic819891966
Pomonkey820241966
Finzel820241997
Jessup720242013
Tall Timbers620141966
La Plata620091966

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.