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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Mississippi has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+319%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Mississippi: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.5 (95% range 2.1–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.5 (95% range 2.1–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.42.04.8
20273.52.04.9
20283.52.14.9
20293.52.14.9
20303.52.14.9

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Lorman1320192016
Tupelo1120221966
Delta N.F.1120211995
Cockrum920241967
Forest920251972
Corinth920251972
Trace South920192007
Fayette820131966
Lake820251966
Lucien720131974
Weir720252007
Amite River720132008
Oak Ridge Vick720212015
Star720252016
Warren Vick620222018
Vicksburg Np520212016
Trace Attala520192016
Trace Chickasaw520252012
Beverly420111966
Dundee420221970
Utica420171968
Walthall419871970
Cybur420191977
Duffee420081973
Waynesboro420101966

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.