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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Alaska has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-42%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Alaska is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Alaska is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.45
20270.140.000.45
20280.130.000.45
20290.130.000.45
20300.130.000.44

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. Richrdsn620231994
Kodiak 2520251985
Burma Road420241996
Petersville420222021
Swan Lake Rd420251993
Thorne Bay419911991
Manley Ht Sp319991999
Ruby320212011
Kenny Lake319971986
Hather Creek220222022
Nicholai Sl220251996
Porcupine R.220002000
Katmai N.P.220142005
Hope220232008
Thorne Bay 2220172013
Eagle120172017
Circle120121986
Chiniak120251986
Birch Lake120112006
Livengood120192018
Nabesna Road120241996
Kuskulana119931990
Tower Bluffs120111996
Chistochina119981998
Mccarthy Rd2120211991

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.