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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Wisconsin has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+123%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Wisconsin: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.22.7
20272.01.22.7
20282.01.32.8
20292.01.32.8
20302.01.32.8

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N Freedom1020251966
Eagle River920241966
Pardeeville920251981
Land O Lakes720161967
Cadott720241973
River Falls720251998
Iron River620091968
Gresham620251998
Esdaile520151966
Wis Rapids520221966
Omro520011967
Fall River520251969
Brownsville520251974
Eden520241968
Hebron520241966
Paris520251966
Cavour520251998
Highland520231998
Weyerhauser420251974
Clintonville420251972
Newburg Crns420251966
Wiota420251966
Omro 2420252002
Meridean420251999
Mukwonago 2420252009

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.