BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in New Jersey has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+127%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in New Jersey: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.7–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to rise about 46% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.7–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.54.8
20273.72.64.9
20283.82.64.9
20293.82.64.9
20303.82.75.0

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape May Ch1220131992
Kemah Lake920241980
Hope819941970
Croton 2820252008
Bennett Mill 2720252016
Sandbrook620251969
Clarksville619911972
Croton620071970
Woodbury Hgt520251968
Greenwich420231966
Passaic419691969
Gillette420251988
Winslow420251989
Holmansville320091969
Midvale320221967
Dover320231977
Pottersville320241977
Del Haven319911991
Ramseysburg320251995
Deepwater219771969
Toms River220241966
Albion220221966
Bennett Mill220001966
Roosevelt220221986
Friendship220251977

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.