BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Vermont has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.28–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.28–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.322.5
20271.40.312.5
20281.40.302.5
20291.40.292.5
20301.40.282.5

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marlboro620251966
Fletcher620251970
Hinesburg619941966
Bristol520251995
Gaysville420251978
Hardwick420241967
S Reading320241966
Shaftsbury320251966
St Johnsbury320131970
Stratton220251966
Post Mills220241966
S Wallingfrd220221966
W Rutland220241966
Newbury220041987
Stowe220241988
North Pownal120251967
Landgrove120251969
East Haven120251966
Northfld Fls120251980
Middlesex120231969
East Calais120251966
Greensboro120151967
Waterville119691967
Colchester120241987
Grand Isle120251969

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.