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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.11.94.4
20273.11.94.4
20283.11.94.4
20293.21.94.4
20303.21.94.4

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell1520182010
Lockesburg1220192010
Centerton820252010
Marshall720212011
England720252010
Nance720251992
Princeton620211998
Blakely519991968
Boston Mtn.520251995
Poyen420071967
Harrisburg420191967
Rupert420241967
Coal Hill420231968
Zion420251967
Avoca420231967
Yellville420252022
Russell420212010
Springhill420222010
Ozark Nf420251991
Crowley'S Ridge420252011
Stark320251967
Compton320221967
Lafe320222021
Stephens320252010
Rudy320252011

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.