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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.94.4
20263.21.94.4
20273.21.94.4
20283.21.94.4
20293.22.04.5

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell1520182010
Lockesburg1220192010
Nance1120241992
South Bend920231967
Stark920241967
Maynard820241967
Marshall720212011
England620242010
Princeton620211998
Blakely519991968
Centerton520242010
Poyen420071967
Harrisburg420191967
Rupert420241967
Coal Hill420231968
Zion420241967
Fulton420241967
Avoca420231967
Russell420212010
Springhill420222010
Waldron320241967
Compton320221967
Lafe320222021
Sims320242010
Eudora220241967

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.