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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Pennsylvania has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Pennsylvania: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.13.8
20263.02.23.9
20273.02.23.9
20283.02.23.9
20293.12.23.9

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Schaefferstown 22020242002
Drehersville 21420242000
Doe Run1320241969
Ryde1120051968
Stoneybreak920241992
Chatham920241997
Eldred820221973
Duvall820211974
Betula720221976
Greentown720241969
Canadensis720241969
Beaver720241969
Waterstreet720241976
Pine Gr Mill720241968
Wild Creek720241988
Lynch620221968
Waller620241974
Munson620241979
Mifflintown620241966
Drehersville619991967
Laurel Hill620241978
Mt Gretna 2620222001
Hop Bottom520241967
Martinsburg520241972
Geeseytown520241987

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.