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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Pennsylvania has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in Pennsylvania: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.23.9
20273.02.23.9
20283.02.23.9
20293.12.23.9
20303.12.23.9

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Canadensis1220251969
Drehersville 21220252000
Ryde1120051968
Pine Gr Mill1120251968
Schaefferstown 21020252002
Stoneybreak1020251992
Chatham1020251997
Honesdale920251972
Landisburg920251978
Berwick920251985
Eldred820221973
Duvall820211974
Clear Spring820251966
Betula720221976
Greentown720241969
Waterstreet720241976
Doe Run720251969
Wild Creek720251988
Lynch620221968
Millville620251969
Beaver620251969
Hometown620251966
Drehersville619991967
Ltl Pine Cr620251990
Mt Gretna 2620222001

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.