BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-62%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Idaho is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Idaho is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.19
20260.060.000.18
20270.050.000.18
20280.050.000.18
20290.050.000.18

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nezperce Nf319921992
Gifford220171990
Centerville220191984
Ririe220102010
Triangle220102010
Henry219771973
Coolin220181986
Blackft Res120162014
Naples120241980
Mivoden120071981
Lolo Pass119961993
Grangeville119871987
Golden120081987
Baker120141974
Cascade119841974
N Fork Cda R120182006
Challis119941979
Leadore120142009
Rochat Divde120232002
Squirrel120041983
Alturas119861986
Springfield120151977
Magic Mtn120171988
Pocatello119841984
Baldy Mountain120142014

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.