BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Kansas has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+120%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Kansas: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 0.74–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.74–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 0.74–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.722.1
20271.40.732.1
20281.40.732.1
20291.40.742.1
20301.40.742.2

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalton620251968
Pittsburg520212001
Galesburg420251969
Humboldt420211971
Wreford420241967
Ellinor420251967
Kanopolis420251968
Rock Creek420211968
Morehead420252000
Rock Creek 2420232022
Melrose320231970
Wellington320251968
Jewell 2320212006
Dover320221967
Chapman319811969
Jewell320051999
Missler319851977
Beloit320012000
Coldwater220221974
Olathe220211967
Buckeye220231967
Hanover220211969
Hollenberg220251969
Minneapolis220151968
Berwet220242001

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.