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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Kansas has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+115%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Kansas: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.74–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.74–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.74–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.722.1
20261.40.732.2
20271.40.732.2
20281.40.732.2
20291.50.742.2

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalton520241968
Pittsburg520212001
Humboldt420211971
Wreford420241967
Ellinor420241967
Rock Creek420211968
Trading Post420242000
Rock Creek 2420232022
Melrose320231970
Wellington320241968
Jewell 2320212006
Dover320221967
Chapman319811969
Jewell320051999
Missler319851977
Bucyrus320242022
Beloit320012000
Coldwater220221974
Olathe220211967
Buckeye220231967
Kanopolis220231968
Hanover220211969
Hollenberg220221969
Minneapolis220151968
Morehead220242000

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.