BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Virginia has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.4 (95% range 2.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.4 (95% range 2.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Branchville1720241966
Newsoms1220241967
Putnam920251969
Mannboro920251967
Big Meadows920251993
Covington820251966
Finchley820211994
Rural Retrt820251982
Dismal Swamp820161992
Douthat720121992
Gloucester720251992
Taylorstown620101967
Fincastle620251966
Moran620251996
Glenwood620231992
Ft Pickett N619951993
Loft Mtn620231993
Iron Mountain 2620132012
Star Tannery520251977
Churchville520251966
Stanley520251966
Isom520241969
Big Island520251968
White Stone520251966
Surry520251977

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.