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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Virginia has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Branchville1720241966
Newsoms1220241967
Brandon1020241992
Big Meadows1020241993
Front Royal1020241993
Edinburg920241968
Covesville920241967
Irisburg820241976
Finchley820211994
Dismal Swamp820161992
New Market720231992
Douthat720121992
Star Tannery620241977
Taylorstown620101967
Covington620241966
Hall620231967
Brandy Station620242017
Glenwood620231992
Shenandoa Np620241993
Ft Pickett N619951993
Loft Mtn620231993
Iron Mountain 2620132012
Port Royal520191977
Isom520241969
Elamsville520161981

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.