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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Ohio has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+116%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Ohio: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Ohio is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.5–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Ohio is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.5–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.32.44.1
20273.32.44.2
20283.32.44.2
20293.42.54.2
20303.42.54.3

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow1620241992
Harveysburg1219961966
Omega1220241974
Pittsfield1020241993
Marion 21020252024
Dresden920251966
Adamsville919831971
Wayland820171992
West Elkton720121992
Ashley720181988
Stonecreek720251997
W Carrollton720151989
Wilmington619961966
Kunkle520251993
Marion520231966
Dell520181993
N Baltimore420191966
Lucerne420251994
Fulton420251966
Meadowbrook420211966
Dunlap419881966
Bolins Mills420251966
Valley City420251995
London420121997
Keene420191992

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.