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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Ohio has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+123%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Ohio: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 2.6–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 2.6–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.32.44.2
20263.32.54.2
20273.42.54.2
20283.42.54.3
20293.42.64.3

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow1620241992
Dresden1520241966
Harveysburg1219961966
Omega1220241974
Pittsfield1020241993
Adamsville919831971
Rome920241966
Wayland820171992
West Elkton720121992
Ashley720181988
W Carrollton720151989
Wilmington619961966
Stonecreek620241997
Harveysburg 2620241997
Enon620241984
Marion520231966
Lucerne520241994
Dell520181993
Mohican S.F.520241993
N Baltimore420191966
Lattasburg420241968
Fulton420241966
Meadowbrook420211966
Dunlap419881966
Hiram420211992

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.