BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in New York has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in New York: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.23.8
20263.02.23.8
20273.12.33.9
20283.12.33.9
20293.12.33.9

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach1320131966
Mt Hope1220101967
Dryden1220241966
North Easton1120241967
Bedford1019961967
Westbrookvle1020191968
Ballston Lk1019951967
Hamburg820241967
Cicero Ctr820241967
Mt Morris720241967
Castile720241969
Manorville620241966
Warwick619741968
Middletown620131968
Austerlitz620231966
Churchville620241968
Parishville620241968
Crescent620241998
Milford620231978
Huntington520221966
Rifton519861967
W Shokan520191968
Trumansburg520241968
East Java520231967
Penfield520241968

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.