BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in New York has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in New York: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New York is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New York is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.23.8
20273.02.23.8
20283.02.23.8
20293.12.23.9
20303.12.33.9

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Easton1720251967
Jones Beach1320131966
Mt Hope1220101967
Bedford1019961967
Westbrookvle1020191968
Ballston Lk1019951967
Penfield920251968
Macdougall820251969
Churchville820251968
Harris Hill820252006
Hamburg720251967
Manorville620241966
Warwick619741968
Middletown620131968
Austerlitz620231966
Salem620251967
Crescent620241998
Milford620231978
Huntington520221966
Rifton519861967
W Shokan520191968
Trumansburg520241968
Naples520251967
N Victory519721967
Romulus419971968

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.