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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Louisiana has surged: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+381%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Louisiana: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 2.9–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 2.9–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.62.76.4
20274.62.76.5
20284.72.86.6
20294.72.96.6
20304.82.96.7

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carlisle1519881968
Bickham1320251984
Junior1119911987
Kraemer1120251997
Lafitte1019911967
Roseland1020251967
Shaw1020241967
Ramah920251988
Norwood920252006
Burr Ferry920251987
River Road920251987
Baton Rouge920251995
Plettenberg820221968
Frogmore820251998
Fishville 2820252018
Pearl River820251989
Franklinton820252008
Forked Island 2820112010
Morgan City719861968
Rayville720081971
Atchafalaya720251989
Keystone620131970
Fillmore619891968
Many619921989
Natchez620251992

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.