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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Louisiana has surged: up 418% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+418%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Louisiana: up 418% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Louisiana is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Louisiana is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.66.4
20264.62.76.4
20274.62.76.5
20284.72.86.6
20294.72.86.6

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baton Rouge2620241995
Roseland2520241967
Kraemer1920241997
Carlisle1519881968
River Road1420241987
Bickham1220241984
Junior1119911987
Lafitte1019911967
Shaw1020241967
Mayflower1020241968
Derry 21020241990
Ramah920241988
Goodwill920242004
Plettenberg820221968
Forked Island820242008
Atchafalaya820241989
Forked Island 2820112010
Morgan City719861968
Rayville720081971
Brousville720241998
Frogmore720241998
Mount Union720241998
Hackberry 2720242018
Rayville 2720242009
Vinton 2720242011

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.