BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in North Dakota has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+129%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in North Dakota: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in North Dakota is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.04–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±129.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in North Dakota is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.04–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.040.51
20260.270.040.51
20270.280.040.51
20280.280.040.51
20290.280.040.51

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edgeley220211988
Lake George220221983
Wimbledon220181992
Buchanan220221981
Dickinson220212015
Stanley220161990
Zap220111983
Braddock220121990
Montpelier220241992
Forman120181977
Walcott120061967
Kempton120131973
Emerado120221973
Cooperstown120241972
Horsehead Lk120141983
Bowesmont119951971
Nash120041983
Lakota120031999
Webster120071997
Rolla120212003
Niles120111992
Regan120222013
Ft Yates120032003
Carpio119711971
Loraine120151990

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.