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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Massachusetts has surged: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+249%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Massachusetts: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 5.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 5.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.75.18.2
20266.85.28.3
20276.95.38.4
20287.05.48.5
20297.05.58.6

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard1620221967
Newburyport1520221967
Holden1520241977
S Barre1320241968
Mansfield1220241968
Marion1120241966
N Oxford920221968
Belchertown920241967
Pittsfield920161967
N. Andover820241995
Brockton720191967
Warren720091968
E Pepperell619941966
Chilmark519831969
Chesterfield520241969
Warren 2520242010
Hancock520151997
E Dennis420211969
Monterey420242019
Ware River420221993
Prattville320191967
Princeton319751970
Cummington320141971
Sheffield320221969
Cape Cod Ns319991989

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.