BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in New Mexico has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-85%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has collapsed in New Mexico: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±131.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.08
20230.000.000.08
20240.000.000.08
20250.000.000.08
20260.000.000.08

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cebolla120171973
Ojo Sarco120212004
Farley120152015
Reserve119971997
Laborcita120091993
Pecos119991999
Bluewater Lake120192019
Gallinas120131992
Angel Fire120021995
Mcgaffey120112002
Mt. Taylor120051997
Vallecitos120041995
Cloudcroft120171997

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.