BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Delaware has surged: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+169%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Delaware: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Delaware is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.0–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Delaware is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.0–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.11.86.3
20264.11.96.4
20274.21.96.4
20284.22.06.5
20294.32.06.5

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Pleasant1020191967
Millsboro920242017
Pepperbox920161998
Pepperbox 2920242017
Holleyville520041966
Blackbird520241994
Wilmington420141968
Milton 2420172017
Frankford320121966
Lowes Xrds319911966
Milton320161967
Holleyville 2320242007
Harrington220241966
Frederica120141966
Dover119871968
Bethany Bch119901967
Georgetown120221992

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.