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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Oklahoma has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has surged in Oklahoma: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.33.5
20272.41.33.5
20282.41.33.5
20292.41.33.5
20302.41.33.5

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heyburn1620251992
Ardmore1520251967
Tatums1120251992
Phillips820251968
Verden820171967
Mill Creek720251968
Indianola620251968
Matoy620251992
Ouachita Nf520241992
Cooperton520231992
Cashion520241992
Big Cedar420241967
Baron420231968
Beggs420231967
Welch420251968
Lookout420251971
Bethel420251993
Sandbluff420251992
Pocola420161992
Holdenville320251967
Colony319951995
Arapaho320131992
Colcord320221992
Keetonville320221993
Hunter320241992

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.