BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Washington has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Washington. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Washington is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Washington is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.000.64
20260.310.000.64
20270.310.000.63
20280.300.000.62
20290.300.000.62

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vashon Is.520241995
Ewan419871987
Camas320091982
Winthrop320131983
South Elma320241975
Warm Beach 2320222019
Deception320181992
Port Angeles220241975
Twisp220241971
Kamilche220221972
Issaquah219861969
Ardenvoir219871982
Moses Lake219981993
Reardan220111971
Bunker Hill220151968
Cougar220231968
Rimrock220051968
Wapato220221988
Snowden220191972
Carlton220071995
Bay View220152002
Mazama220221999
Northport219981996
Rainier220161997
Yakima220241994

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.