BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Washington has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Washington. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Washington is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Washington is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.010.67
20270.330.000.66
20280.330.000.66
20290.320.000.66
20300.320.000.65

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rainier720251997
Port Angeles420251975
Ewan419871987
Vashon Is.420251995
Camas320091982
Winthrop320131983
Ilwaco320251976
South Elma320241975
Yakima320251994
Warm Beach 2320222019
Carnation320251988
Deception320181992
Twisp220241971
Kamilche220221972
Issaquah219861969
Ardenvoir219871982
Moses Lake219981993
Reardan220111971
Cougar220231968
Rimrock220051968
Wapato220221988
Snowden220191972
Kendall220251982
Carlton220071995
Bay View220152002

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.