BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 2.1–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 2.1–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Durham1320241990
Brevard1020241968
Wilgrove1020241995
Beargrass919811967
Mashoes819821971
Youngsville820241966
Eden820241987
Flay820241990
Green Swamp820062002
California 2720242014
Bullock720231997
Gupton720242001
Lake Surf720231998
Myrtle Grove620241966
Kinston620241978
Jordan620241966
Sawmill620241990
Newport620231995
Maple Hill620231995
Genoa620241990
Hendersonvil620241996
Siloam620242005
Shallotte519911966
Oakboro520241969
Cullowhee520241974

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.