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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-70%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Downy Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.10
20270.010.000.10
20280.010.000.10
20290.010.000.09
20300.010.000.09

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine320152015
Dry Park220251992
Williams220062006
Forest Lakes120222022
Tsaile119931993
Mormon Lake119691968
Happy Jack120252005
Aztec Peak119761976
Blue119891975

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.