BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Iowa

All statesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Iowa has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Downy Woodpecker Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Iowa is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.45–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Iowa is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.45–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.441.3
20260.880.441.3
20270.880.441.3
20280.880.451.3
20290.880.451.3

Downy Woodpecker Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock520241970
College Spgs420041968
Prairieburg419991977
Festina420241968
Lafayette320242003
Cedar Valley219971968
Neola220141968
Wales220181967
Alice219991969
Kanawha220242016
Zearing219951970
Clare220151975
Davis Corner220241970
Mt Hamill120231967
Exline120241984
Melrose120241977
Bedford120181968
Bryant120241968
West Liberty120231968
Brooklyn120221967
Williamsburg120231967
Desmoines119781968
Panther120241967
Washington120241967
Maquoketa120241968

Downy Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.